Florida spent much of 2025 as the cautionary tale of American housing. The newest numbers say the resale story has turned, and the more telling signal is what apartment builders in Miami are doing about it.

What happened. Realtor.com reported on NAR’s third quarter metro price data this week: 18 of the 19 Florida markets NAR tracks posted gains in the median price of existing single family homes, with only Tallahassee flat. Miami rose 3.3%, nearly double the national pace. Nationally, the median existing single family price rose 1.7% to $432,900, and prices rose in 78% of metros, down from 80% in the spring. Realtor.com tied much of Florida’s rebound to its luxury tier, where sales above $1 million rose nearly 10% from a year earlier in August.

On the rental side, CRE Daily reported Yardi Matrix data showing Miami asking rents essentially flat at $2,545, up 0.1% over the three months through August, with Yardi forecasting a 0.3% decline by year end. The number that matters most to me is starts: builders broke ground on 7,522 apartments through August, down 34.4% from the same stretch of 2025.

Where we see opportunity. A shrinking pipeline in a market that is still adding people is the setup we look for. CRE Daily reports the Miami metro gained 123,471 residents in 2024, growth of 1.9%, roughly double the national rate. Starts down by a third today means fewer deliveries a few years out, when that population still needs a place to live. Builders who can entitle and break ground while others pull back are positioning for the gap that opens once the 35,921 units now under construction are absorbed.

The workforce tier is where I would focus. Yardi’s renter by necessity units in Miami average $1,978 a month, against $2,802 for upscale Lifestyle units, and nearly all of this year’s new supply has been Lifestyle product, per CRE Daily. That is the K shaped housing economy inside a single metro: the pipeline is built for the top, while most of the workforce rents older stock that nobody is adding to.

Where we see the downfalls. First, a luxury led price rebound is not a broad recovery. NAR’s affordability figures, as reported by Realtor.com, show the typical first time buyer spending 36.3% of income on a starter home payment. A resale market lifted by million dollar buyers can sit right next to a first time buyer who is still locked out.

Second, jobs. CRE Daily reports South Florida employment slipped 0.4% through June, with financial activities down 5,600 jobs. Population growth without job growth is not a durable demand story for rents.

Third, carrying costs and capital. Insurance and property taxes remain the swing factors in Florida underwriting, and they can erase a price gain faster than any rate move. Capital is cautious too: Miami area apartment sales totaled $2.2 billion through August, down 8.4% and the slowest pace since the pandemic, CRE Daily reported.

What we are watching. Whether price gains spread below the luxury tier in the next quarterly data, whether apartment starts keep falling into 2027, and whether South Florida employment turns positive. If starts stay low and jobs come back, Miami gets tight again. If jobs keep slipping, the shrinking pipeline is simply the market adjusting to weaker demand, and that is a very different bet.

If you are weighing a Florida site or a stalled project and want a second set of eyes on feasibility and capital structure before you commit, that is the work we do at Kaufman Real Estate & Consulting: https://www.kaufmanrealestateandconsulting.com.

About the Author

I’m the founder and CEO of Kaufman & Company, a private investment and holding firm working across real estate development, venture investment, and infrastructure. My focus is workforce housing and employer-anchored development, including mountain resort communities through Oldivai.

Reach me at Daniel@kaufmanredev.com or find more at danielkaufmanre.com.

Sources

Home Prices Rebound in Florida as Miami Sees 3.3% Growth, Realtor.com, October 29, 2026, https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/home-prices-rising-miami-florida-nar-q3-2026/

Miami Multifamily Rents Hold at $2,545 as Starts Fall 34%, CRE Daily, October 28, 2026, https://www.credaily.com/briefs/miami-multifamily-rents-hold-at-2545-as-starts-fall-34/