By Daniel Kaufman

www.danielkaufmanrealestate.com

When a homebuilding giant like KB Home—a company my grandfather helped found and one our family still holds shares in—starts slashing prices in Florida, it’s more than a corporate strategy shift. It’s a barometer of a much larger cooling trend across the Sunshine State.

I’ve been tracking Florida’s housing market closely, both professionally and personally, and what we’re seeing now is a clear inflection point. On the company’s most recent earnings call, KB’s COO Rob McGibney didn’t mince words: “Florida was our softest state in terms of sales demand in the first quarter.” That softness translated to price cuts of $30,000 or more per home—with Jacksonville leading the pullback.

This isn’t just noise on an earnings call. It’s the symptom of a broader, statewide reset.

The Florida Market Is No Longer Bulletproof

Throughout the pandemic, Florida was the poster child for migration-fueled housing demand. Buyers from the Northeast, Midwest, and West Coast flooded into the state, pushing home prices to dizzying highs. Builders, developers, and investors rushed to meet the moment.

But now? That moment has passed.

Realtor.com’s March 2025 report paints a sobering picture. Pending sales are down double digits in markets like Jacksonville, Tampa, and Orlando. Inventory is surging. Homes are sitting on the market longer. And price reductions? Nearly 1 in 3 listings in some metros are seeing them.

In Jacksonville alone, there’s a seven-month supply of unsold homes—an oversupply not seen since pre-pandemic levels.

A Personal Perspective on a Family Legacy

For me, this isn’t just another market trend. KB Home isn’t just a ticker symbol or headline—it’s family history. My grandfather was one of the early pioneers who helped build KB into one of the nation’s most respected homebuilders. Our family still holds shares, and I’ve always followed the company closely, both out of pride and professional interest.

So when I hear KB’s executive team talk about the need to “find the market” in Florida—by cutting prices, boosting incentives, and adjusting strategy community by community—I understand the gravity of the moment. It’s not panic. It’s pragmatic. And it’s exactly what builders must do in a market that’s recalibrating fast.

What’s Driving the Cooldown?

It’s a combination of forces:

Sticker shock from rapid post-COVID price appreciation. Skyrocketing home insurance costs tied to climate risks. Lingering rate uncertainty and economic policy concerns under a new Trump administration. And maybe most critically: migration has slowed.

Realtor.com data shows out-of-state buyer interest has fallen sharply. Meanwhile, Southern neighbors like Georgia, the Carolinas, and Texas are picking up the demand Florida is losing.

As Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality, put it: “Florida’s success may have become its undoing.”

What It Means for Investors, Builders, and Buyers

This isn’t a crash. It’s a correction. And for savvy investors and developers, that opens the door to opportunity.

Price cuts from big builders are creating breathing room. Inventory is rising. And Florida still has the fundamentals—population growth, no income tax, a business-friendly climate. But the next wave of success in Florida real estate will come not from riding a trend, but from smart underwriting, localized insight, and a longer-term horizon.

For those of us with roots here—and skin in the game—this is a chance to reset and rethink the next chapter.

Daniel Kaufman

President, Kaufman Development

danielk@kaufmanredev.com | @DanielKaufmanRE

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