For the past several years, wealthy New Yorkers have fueled an unprecedented real estate boom in Palm Beach, FL, driving home prices to record highs as part of a “supercharged southern migration.” But now, the trend that reshaped South Florida’s luxury housing market is showing early signs of reversal—as affluent buyers begin returning to New York City in record numbers.

The Palm Beach Boom: A Pandemic-Fueled Frenzy

At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, deep-pocketed New Yorkers fled south, escaping city lockdowns for Palm Beach’s sun-soaked luxury estates. This migration sent home prices skyrocketing and inventory plummeting, with the median home price peaking at $4.15 million in April 2022—nearly double pre-pandemic levels.

In Palm Beach County, the median single-family home price climbed from $370,000 in 2019 to $665,000 in 2024—an 89% increase. Luxury sales followed suit:

• Homes selling for $2,000+ per square foot soared 640% from 2019 to 2024

• $20M+ home sales surged 500% in the same period

• In January 2025 alone, six homes sold for more than $20M—more than all of 2019 combined

The demand was so intense that inventory for homes priced over $1 million dropped by half, from 313 listings in 2019 to just 137 in early 2025.

New Yorkers played a central role in this explosion. Driver’s license data from 2023 showed that more New Yorkers than any other state were exchanging their licenses for Florida IDs, while IRS data revealed that Manhattan transplants to Palm Beach had an average annual income of $728,000.

But now the tide is turning—and fast.

The Luxury Migration Reversal: High-Income New Yorkers Head Back North

As the economy stabilizes and New York City regains its appeal, a new migration trend is emerging: wealthy buyers are returning to NYC, fueling a resurgence in the city’s luxury real estate market.

Key indicators show that NYC’s real estate market is heating up again:

✔️ Manhattan’s median rent hit $4,350 in January 2025—a 5% increase from last year

✔️ Lease signings surged 27% year-over-year, marking 10 consecutive months of annual growth

✔️ Queens and Brooklyn rents are rising too—Queens hit $3,400, while Brooklyn’s price per square foot climbed to a record $57.90

The supply crunch in NYC is tightening again as buyers hesitate due to high mortgage rates, keeping rental demand high. Developers and investors are taking note, with luxury projects picking up steam to capitalize on the rebound.

Despite record-low housing inventory, New York’s real estate market remained resilient in December, with home sales ticking upward. According to the New York State Association of REALTORS®, inventory hit its lowest level since tracking began in 1997, falling 2.6% year-over-year to just 23,198 homes. Yet, buyers continued to move forward—closed sales rose 3.7%, reaching 9,138 transactions, while pending sales climbed 3.5%. This persistent demand, despite tight supply, underscores the market’s strength as New Yorkers return and competition heats up.

What once seemed like an unstoppable exodus to Florida is beginning to shift. New Yorkers who once flocked to Palm Beach are returning to NYC in record numbers, drawn by economic stability, cultural resurgence, and the enduring appeal of the city’s high-end real estate market.

For developers and investors, this signals a pivotal moment. South Florida’s meteoric rise may start to cool, while New York City’s luxury market is regaining momentum. Those who adapt to the shifting tides will be best positioned to capitalize on this next chapter of high-end real estate.