The Pandemic Effect

During the COVID-19 pandemic, jobs flowed out of cities, and now it appears they may not return. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s analysis reveals a significant impact on job availability and location.

Where Are the Jobs Going?

Job listings have migrated away from city centers, gravitating toward the fringes of large metro areas, smaller metros, and even rural regions. Simultaneously, certain occupations—such as computer and mathematical roles, business and financial operations, sales, office support, food preparation, and healthcare—have seen increased job openings.

The Interconnected Shift

Geography and occupation are intertwined. The largest and densest urban areas experienced the most substantial declines in job listings by occupation. Conversely, smaller, less populated geographies saw the strongest increases in job listings.

By the Numbers

• Large central metros (counties with populations over 1 million) accounted for 46% of all listings before the pandemic. Post-pandemic, this share dropped to 38%.
• Large fringe metros (counties commuting to central metros) maintained stable job listings.
• Medium metros, small metros, and micropolitan areas collectively rose by approximately seven percentage points compared to the pre-pandemic period.

The Bottom Line

This seismic shift reflects a reallocation of labor demand away from major urban centers, signaling a long-term transformation in job distribution.

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